Over or under? Picking 2024 win totals for the Pac-12's 10 departing schools
A tradition unlike any other.
You know, my 2023 Pac-12 over/under win total predictions didn’t wind up so bad. Discarding a pair of pushes, I hit seven and missed only three.
These were the seven I picked correctly, with last year’s regular-season record in parentheses. I’ll list them in order of the confidence rating I assigned each prediction last May.
1. UCLA under 8.5 (7-5)
3. Arizona State under 5 (3-9)
5. Washington over 9 (12-0)
6. Oregon over 9.5 (11-1)
7. Arizona over 5.5 (9-3)
11. USC under 9.5 (7-5)
12. Colorado over 3 (4-8)
So I was right on two of my three most confident picks — and four of my most confident six — and also on my two least confident picks. These were my three misses:
4. Utah over 8.5 (8-4)
8. California under 4.5 (6-6)
9. Washington State over 6.5 (5-7)
There were also two pushes. I had the over on Oregon State at eight wins, and the Beavers finished 8-4, and I had the under on Stanford at three wins — my second-most confident prediction — and the Cardinal finished 3-9.
And sure, the Pac-12 as we knew it is no more, but we can still make our picks for how the departing 10 members will fare in their new leagues, based on over/under win totals from FanDuel (hat tip to Jason Puckett and John Canzano for unearthing these). I’d love to make predictions on Washington State and Oregon State, too, but it appears there are only totals available for the Power 4 conferences at present.
Here’s how I would pick win totals for each of the Departing Ten, ranked in order from most to least confident.