Washington, the Blue-Chip Ratio and a chance to become The Exception
Can Michael Penix Jr., a group of impact transfers and some experienced seniors help the Huskies break one big barrier?
For two seasons, the Washington Huskies belonged to one of college football’s most exclusive clubs.
In both 2019 and 2020, UW’s Blue-Chip Ratio — the ratio of four- and five-star high-school or junior-college prospects who signed in the previous four recruiting classes — finally eclipsed the crucial 50-percent mark. Reaching or exceeding this threshold, BCR creator Bud Elliott posits, is a prerequisite for national-championship contention.
UW signed three consecutive recruiting classes — from 2018-20 — that each ranked No. 16 nationally, per the 247Sports Composite. Chris Petersen’s 2019 haul — 16 blue-chips out of 23 signees — really juiced the numbers. Washington still wasn’t exactly a factor in national-championship discussions, but it had at least assembled a roster that suggested such a ceiling was possible.
Inclusion in the BCR club does not guarantee any measure of success, but it is true that no team in the College Football Playoff era — or really in the modern, internet recruiting era — has won a title without meeting the 50-percent requirement. I’ve always found it the most useful metric for determining which programs are best at stacking talent.
The Huskies fell out of BCR compliance in 2021, and haven’t come particularly close since. Yet they are in the midst of one of their greatest seasons ever, and might be better-positioned than any past non-BCR CFP participant to actually win a championship. It’s still possible that any one of Texas, Michigan or Alabama could line up against the Huskies and prove exactly why BCR membership matters, but UW still harbors its most legitimate national championship hopes in 32 years.
Of course, they’ve come to this exact juncture once before, with even less *perceived* talent across their roster.